Which Jobs Are Most at Risk from AI in 2026?

The Research Is In

For years, predictions about AI and jobs were largely theoretical. In 2026, we have something better: actual data.

Anthropic's Labor Market Impacts report analysed millions of real Claude conversations to measure which tasks AI is actually performing versus what it could theoretically do. Microsoft Research analysed 200,000 anonymised Bing Copilot conversations to score every occupation by AI applicability.

The picture that emerges is more nuanced than most headlines suggest.

The Most Exposed Roles

Anthropic's research identifies four sectors with the highest observed AI exposure:

Computer & Mathematical — 94% theoretical capability, 33% currently observed in use.

Office & Administrative Support — 90% theoretical capability. This includes data entry, administrative assistance, and routine document processing.

Business & Financial Operations — High exposure across accounting, analysis, and financial processing tasks.

Sales — Customer service and inside sales roles face significant automation pressure as AI handles routine interactions.

The Most Protected Roles

At the other end, Anthropic found that 30% of workers have zero observed AI exposure. These are roles requiring physical presence that no language model can replicate:

• Construction and skilled trades
• Food preparation and service
• Personal care and home health
• Installation and repair trades

Microsoft's research confirms this pattern — physical labour, machinery operation, and hands-on roles have the lowest AI applicability scores of any occupation.

The Nuance Most Coverage Misses

Here is what most AI and jobs coverage gets wrong: exposure does not equal displacement.

Brookings Institution research shows that among 37 million highly exposed workers, 26.5 million have above-median adaptive capacity. They are exposed but equipped.

The real risk is concentrated among 6.1 million workers who face both high exposure AND low adaptive capacity — concentrated in clerical and administrative roles.

What This Means For You

The question is not just "is my job exposed?" but "can I adapt if it is?"

That is exactly what the CanIBeReplaced assessment measures — not just your exposure but your capacity to respond.

Take the free assessment →